Las proyecciones del cambio climático en Colombia, indican en promedio un incremento en 2.6☌ de temperatura y 20% de la precipitación para el fin del siglo. Key words: bioclimatic niches, climate change, Euglossini, orchids. Throughout the country, 69 of these BN were located as an adaptation-conservation strategy against climate change in the TDF in Colombia. Consequently, bioclimatic niches (BN) are proposed as a new landscape management unit. Other variables analysed, such as distance thresholds of pollinators (Euglossini), availability of phorophytes, and distances to TDF cover and protected areas, all suggest an improving connectivity between the lowland and mid-mountain areas. Mid-mountain areas (1300-1700 m) increased their idoneity in future potential niche models (20) to the detriment of the lowlands (0-1000 m). The results indicate an altitudinal displacement compared to the present, conditioned by variables such as temperature, accessibility and precipitation. The actual potential niche was compared to the SRES 8.5 climate change emissions scenario for two periods: 2020-2049 (2030) and 2040-2069 (2050). A total of 439 records: direct observations (276) herbaria collections (159) and bibliographical sources (4) collected since September 2009 to April 2015 were considered for use in training the model. The algorithm used by Ma圎nt was employed for modelling. We studied the spatial and temporal changes of a focal group of 12 orchid species typical of the TDF in Colombia, and the future conservation areas to this ecosystem. Epiphytic orchids, more exposed to the atmosphere than the terrestrial biota, remain dependent on climatic variables, making them particularly susceptible to climate change. These changes would directly affect the tropical dry forest (TDF) and its biodiversity.
Climate change projections in Colombia predict an average increase in temperature of 2.6☌ and in precipitation of 20% by the end of the century.